Bear Digest

Best arguments for Chicago Bears making a worst-to-first run

Could the factors line up for a Bears worst-to-first run? They've done it three times this century and there are indicators leaning their way but are there enough?

Gene Chamberlain

Can Caleb Williams take the Bears from worst to first in his second year? Mitchell Trubisky did it.
Can Caleb Williams take the Bears from worst to first in his second year? Mitchell Trubisky did it. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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A worst-to-first climb in 2018 meant a Bears NFC North title for the first time since 2010.

It's the type of thing many Bears fans are banking on their team doing in 2025 after all the offseason changes made, and there are good reasons for optimism.

History ranks right up there as one with Bears fans, who have seen it happen three times for their team since the turn of the century even if there have been big gaps between those occurrences: 2001, 2005 and 2018.

Even in a division with the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, the Bears climbing from the basement to the penthouse wouldn't be a total shock.

In his mailbag this week, Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer gave them a shot, although his comment seemed a bit like the Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) saying in "Dumb and Dumber": "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

"How would it happen?" Breer wrote. "If everything comes together on the offensive line, Caleb Williams makes a Year 2 leap like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes once did, and Dennis Allen brings a talented defense together. J.J. McCarthy doesn’t live up to expectations in Minnesota, and the coaching staff drain hits Detroit harder than expected.

"Likely? No. Possible? I guess."

Actually, it's not as unlikely as imagined.

Here are the factors that add up to a Bears division title run

1. Detroit losses

Calling the Lions a lock to win the division or even make a strong run at it might be drinking silver and blue Kool-Aid this year. Besides the massive hit to their coaching staff, Breer doesn't really mention the way they've had their offensive line decimated all while the Bears' line has improved at the same spots.

Losing Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler is devastating. They might be using Graham Glasgow at center. He has played there, making 2,611 snaps. However, he's been at guard for 5,299 plays. Regardless of position, Glasgow will be switching to a spot less played at age 33 for this season after a season when his blocking declined. He was graded 85th of 136 guards Pro Football Focus graded, 88th as a pass blocker, and he gave up 36 pressures and four sacks. If they can keep Glasgow at guard, it's because they've got rookie Tate Ratledge at center. Starting rookies at center in the NFL can be a very tricky business. They're already turning backup Christian Mahogany into a starter at guard. He has made one start and seven game appearances.

Meanwhile, the Bears brought in two former Pro Bowl guards and a center regarded among the best fiv in the league by PFF grades.

The offensive line was the Lions' biggest strength and now this dynamic has changed unless line coach Hank Fraley works a miracle.

2. J.J McCarthy uncertainty

While the Vikings have made changes to upgrade their surrounding cast, McCarthy will be the big unknown because of not playing as a rookie. It's difficult to gauge how this works based on history. McCarthy is the first quarterback since the start of the AFL-NFL common draft era (1967) to be selected in the first round and miss their entire first season due to injury. Who knows how that will work out, even with a strong supporting cast and an excellent offensive-minded head coach.

Jordan Love, Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Ken O'Brien, Kelly Stouffer and Steve Pisarkiewicz are examples of first-rounders who sat out their entire first season and it's difficult to judge much from history in these cases, except that sitting out a year doesn't necessarily mean they'll be failures.

Palmer, Love and O'Brien went on to play effectively. The others struggled.

3. Packers youth

They ranked as the youngest team in the league last year and are leaning on young talent, still. That young team lost to the Bears to end the last regular season, and finished with a three-game losing streak to go with a 1-5 divisional record.

4. Packers soft spots

Their front, the line in particular, was deemed a weakness by the end of last year. Jaire Alexander is gone and while they think they have a replacement they can't be sure of the impact after he was a force in their secondary. The Packers look like a stronger team again, but there's enough uncertainty on defense to think they can be passed by a greatly improved team.

They finally addressed a longtime need for a first-round wide receiver, but receiver can be a position requiring a few years for players to excel. Not everyone is a Justin Jefferson.

5. Bears coaching

Even if you thought Ben Johnson would have problems adjusting to being a head coach and no longer was offensive coordinator, there was no hidden behind-the-scenes factor actually making last year's Bears coaching staff secretly better than people gave it credit for being. There's no other way to say it than Williams was working with sub-par coaching. It's impossible to look at what happened and blame it on lack of Bears talent or even entirely on Williams as a result. Everyone saw on game day the inept decision making and offensive play calling, how they came unprepared to start games and late-game gaffes by Matt Eberflus. Even on the defensive side, Eberflus had made mistakes. He hired Alan Williams as defensive coordinator, hired Shane Waldron as an offensive coordinator over far more qualified candidates, and his defenses blew big leads late in games.

Johnson's worst coaching efforts can't help but improve on coaching from a staff that had 10- and 14-game losing streaks in the last three years.

6. Caleb Williams' second year

Even if you buy the scenario Williams had a poor season rather than the one where he had a mediocre year and was surrounded by bad talent and coaching, it's probable Williams has a better second year based on what often happens with second-year QBs who fail to excel as rookies.

Mitchell Trubisky went from a 77.5 passer rating to 95.4. Justin Fields went from a 73.2 to an 85.2. Outside of Chicago, Bryce Young improved to an 82.2 after a 73.7 in Year 2 and Sam Darnold from 77.6 to 84.3.

Few QBs in recent memory struggled like Josh Allen as a rookie with a 67.9 passer rating and then he followed with an 85.3.

Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Carson Wentz all followed this trend. Even Brock Purdy, who had a spectacular rookie season by QB rating standards, managed to improve in Year 2.

QBs who had surprisingly good first season most often fall back toward the mean in Year 2. Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Cam Newton, Mac Jones are examples.

7. Schedule

This might seem the exact opposite because the Bears have what rates as the second-toughest schedule based on opponents' 2024 winning percentage.

One year's tough schedule very often turns out to be one of the weaker schedules and vice versa in a league with competitive balance like the NFL.

Last year the Bears had a schedule tied for third-easiest based on winning percentages of opponents going into it. When the season ended, they had played the toughest schedule in the NFL based on the same standards. The same type of flip has occurred recently to them multiple times and sometimes in the opposite manner.

Some would argue the reason it was so tough was because the Bears were weak themselves last year.

If that was a valid comment, then the Bears wouldn't have had the second toughest schedule because they didn't have the second-worst record. Everything changes year to year based on teams exceeding last year's record or falling off from it.

It's easy to go through their schedule and find opponents for 2025 who looked formidable last year and could very easily flip to the softer side. This happens every year, just as the opposite happens.

Outside their division, Cincinnati and Cleveland have problems; the Bengals' defense and Browns' offense are comparable garbage. Pittsburgh has floated around as a low-level playoff team and the most likely next step is a losing record with a 41-year-old QB just like the Jets discovered last year. Aaron Rodgers ranked second in checkdown percentage last year according to PFF, a stat normally associated with washed-up QBs. No. 1 in this category last year was Russell Wilson.

No one would fear New Orleans with is QB situation and aging defense. The Giants are perennial non-factors waiting to happen. Dallas has a new coaching staff and is trying to prevent a downward spiral that seems talent-based. And they have Eberflus.

Add in the divisional factors already mentioned and it's easy to see the Bears making a worst-to-first bid. At least I'm saying there's a chance.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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