The Diamondbacks Face the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in San Francisco for three games against Giants at Oracle Park starting on Monday evening. News broke overnight that the Diamondbacks are calling up top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The correspondng roster move(s) have not yet been formally announced.

The Giants are 24-17 and currently occupy the third NL Wild Card position. They're coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins over the weekend, however, all by close scores.

The Diamondbacks are 21-20, three games behind the Giants, and a game behind the St. Louis Cardinals. They just completed a split of a four-game series against the Dodgers at Chase Field. The turnstiles were busy, as over 182,000 fans were on hand to watch the thrilling series and unveiling of the team's new City Connect Jerseys.

STANDINGS

Oracle Park and Park Factors

Any discussion of the Giants needs to include the ballpark they play in, and how it affects offense, and the team's overall statistics. Year in year out, Oracle park suppresses offense and plays as one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league.

This is measurable by park factors. Set to a scale where 100 equals average, a number over 100 indicates the park favors hitters and under 100 favors the pitchers. The Giants' multi-year factor of 92 makes it the second most pitcher-friendly park in the league, with only T-Mobile Park in Seattle ranking lower according to Baseball Reference. For those wondering, Chase Field has been playing close to neutral, with a 101 Park Factor.

The impact these ballparks can have on the statistics generated are sometimes extreme. If going by just the raw, unadjusted numbers, Oracle Park makes hitters performance look worse than they actually are, and conversely makes the pitchers look better. For this reason, the Giants offense is frequently underrated, and at times their pitching can be overrated.

Fortunately Baseball Reference also produces park adjusted numbers, such as OPS+ and ERA+, which are set to a scale of league average being 100. The higher the better. It's a simple number and easy to find on league, team, and player pages.

For Example, the Giants unadjusted team OPS of .686 ranks 20th in MLB, and is well below the league average .708. But their team OPS+ of 99 ranks 14th, putting their actual performance into the proper context, at just about league average. Similarly the Giants team ERA of 3.43 ranks seventh best in MLB, but their park adjusted ERA+ of 112 ranks eleventh.

Now that we have an understanding, lets take a look at the pitchng and hitting matchups.

Monday, May 12, 6:45 P.M. PST. Merrill Kelly RHP vs Justin Verlander RHP

Kelly took his second loss of the season last time out despite throwin 6.1 innings and allowing three runs, his fourth quality start of the season. The last time he pitched at Oracle Park he went seven innings, allowing two runs in a no-decision.

Verlander did not get off to a great start to his season, posting a 6.75 ERA in his first four games. He's been excellent over his most recent four outings, however. He has a 2.70 ERA and .193 B.A. against, albeit with three homers against. Oddly enough, he has a 4.87 ERA at home and 4.15 on the road.

The last time the future Hall of Famer faced the D-backs, he was with the Astros and gave up eight runs in three innings. Seven of them came off the bat of Pavin Smith.

Tuesday, May 13, 6:45 P.M. PST. Brandon Pfaadt RHP vs Robbie Ray LHP

Pfaadt leads the team in wins, quality starts (5), innings pitched, and starter ERA. He threw 6.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers last Thursday in yet another impressive outing against the NL West juggernauts. He was hit hard by the Giants last September, giving up five runs in 2.2 innings at Chase Field.

Former Diamondback Ray is on a heater. After walking 15 batters in his first four starts and posting a 4.19 ERA, he's walked just eight over his last four outings, giving up just five runs. As Diamondbacks fans know all too well, when Ray is throwing strikes, he is tough to deal with, but if hitters can be patient and work the counts, he can be forced into short outings.

Wednesday May 14, 12:45 P.M. MST Eduardo Rodriguez LHP vs Jordan Hicks RHP

This is an interesting matchup in that both pitchers have much lower FIP than their ERA. Fielding Independent Pitching can often be an indicator that a hurler is throwing much better or much worse than his results. It's based on walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Balls in play, i.e. non-homer hits, are not incuded. It measures what the pitcher most has control over.

The narrative for Rodriguez most of the year has been he's pitched in bad luck, and that is at least partially true, as evidenced by his FIP being 2.44 runs lower than his ERA. But he was hit extremely hard in two of his last three outings. He needs to stay out of the middle of the strike zone. His stuff plays on the edges however.

Hicks has had poor luck to an even greater degree than Rodriguez, and his 3.18 FIP is actualliy considered quite good.

Lineups

The Giants have been without Tyler Fitzgerald due to a fractured rib since May 1. Most of those reps have gone to Christian Koss since then. The D-backs' position player pool is healthy, with nobody on the IL as of this writing.

The Diamondbacks' team OPS+ of 113 ranks sixth best in MLB, compared to the Giants' ranking of 14th. Among everyday players, Corbin Carroll has led the way with a 153 OPS+, along with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who is at 139. Ketel Marte missed almost four weeks with a hamstring injury but has put up good numbers in his limited sample size. Platoon DH/First Baseman Pavin Smith leads the team with a 174 OPS+

Heliot Ramos and Mike Yastrzemski lead the team with a 139 OPS+, while Matt Chapman comes in with a very solid 131 OPS+ despite a .225 batting average. Such is the power of park-adjusted OPS. Big offseason acquisition Willy Adames has slumped for much of the season, limping to a lowly 84 OPS+.

Bullpens

The bullpen has been the Achilles heel for the Diamondbacks ever since A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez went down with injuries. Year to date, the D-backs' 5.02 reliever ERA ranks 25th in MLB, and since April 18, when Puk went on the injured list, that number is 6.31, 27th in MLB. Justin Martinez is not eligible to return until the weekend against the Rockies at the earliest.

Shelby Miller (1.08 ERA) and Jalen Beeks (2.11 ERA) have been excellent workhorse. But virtually everyone else in the bullpen has struggled mightily. Kevin Ginkel has a 15.43 ERA in six games since returning from injury. Ryan Thompson has a 5.74 ERA in 15. 2 innings and has allowed three homers.

The Giants meanwhile have an MLB best 2.53 bullpen ERA. They have just seven blown leads compared to 11 for the Diamondbacks. This then has been the separator between the two teams. The Giants have four relievers with an ERA 1.45 or lower, and only one reliever above a 3.12 ERA.

Ryan Walker (6.43 ERA) and Camilo Doval (1.45 ERA) have been splitting the save chances, but Walker just blew a save against the Twins on Sunday, so expect Doval to get the ninth inning during this series.