2025 Rocket Classic Betting Models, Picks: Ball-strikers, Hot Putters Thrive at Detroit Golf Club

Fresh off of sticking the latest knife in Tommy Fleetwood’s heart on the PGA Tour, Keegan Bradley is back in action for the Rocket Classic (we dropped the “Mortgage” at some point, apparently) as we’re en route to Detroit Golf Club this week. The field looks quite a bit different from what we’ve seen the past two weeks at the U.S. Open and signature-event Travelers, but that also represents opportunity. 

Detroit Golf Club (DGC) is a 7,370-yard Par-72 designed by Donald Ross that has only been a stop on the PGA Tour since 2019. Over that time, though, we’ve seen some quality winners, including two-time and now-defending champion Cam Davis, who is in the field again this week. One of the most consistent things that we’ve seen at the Rocket Classic, though, is that low scores (four of the six winners have been 23 under or better) and quality ball-strikers have been at a premium. 

Where does that leave us and what are we looking for this week to find a winner? Let’s dive into the model and what it says we should prioritize at Detroit Golf Club this week. 

Key Stats for Detroit Golf Club

Strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds

If all else fails, you have to look at the players who have been accomplishing the most on approach, and that holds true at the Rocket Classic. While it’s not the end-all in the equation, the consistent theme among winners in Detroit has been striking the ball well with the irons and wedges. 

1. Emiliano Grillo (1.56)
2. Steven Fisk (0.68)
3. Alex Smalley (0.67)
4. Henrik Norlander (0.67)
5. John Pak (0.66)

Strokes-gained total at Detroit Golf Club and Comp Courses over the last 24 rounds

For a setup at DGC where scoring is low with ball-striking at a premium and proverbial putting contests can break out, we looked at the last 24 rounds over the last five years (min. 12 rounds) at the players with the best SG: Total at Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, Silverado, and TPC Craig Ranch.

1. Max Homa (2.29)
2. Cam Davis (1.90)
3. Si Woo Kim (1.77)
4. Taylor Moore (1.63)
5. Emiliano Grillo (1.42)

Strokes-gained off-the-tee in the last 24 rounds

There isn’t a huge penalty off of the tee but, with scores being low in this event traditionally, the complete tee-to-green play is going to play a factor. So, we’re looking at the guys who have been gaining off the tee the most in the field of late, especially with distance playing a role this week. 

1. Chris Gotterup (1.12)
2. Jesper Svensson (0.82)
3. Michael Thorbjornsen (0.76)
4. Cameron Champ (0.63)
5. Thomas Rosenmueller (0.63)

Strokes-gained putting on bent/poa greens in last 36 rounds

As mentioned, this can turn into a putting contest. On the bent/poa greens, we have to look at the players in the Rocket Classic field who have been doing the best job of filling up the cup on this type of putting surface. 

1. Rico Hoey (0.91)
2. Harry Hall (0.82)
3. Min Woo Lee (0.79)
4. Max Greyserman (0.68)
5. Peter Malnati (0.66)

Rocket Classic model rankings for Detroit Golf Club

It’s a unique model in play for the Rocket Classic, one that focuses on ball-striking, scoring, and history on similar types of golf courses. We’re looking at SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds (20%), SG: Total at Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch and Silverado over their last 24 rounds (15%), SG: Off-the-Tee in the last 24 rounds (12.5%), SG: Putting on bent/poa in the last 36 rounds (10%), Proximity from 100-150 yards over the last 24 rounds (10%), SG: Total in easy scoring conditions over the last 36 rounds (10%), Birdie or Better rate in the last 24 rounds (10%), Good Drive Percentage over the last 24 rounds (7.5%) and Par 5 scoring average over the last 24 round (5%). With all of that baked in, here are the Top 10 in the model this week in Detroit.

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Keith Mitchell
4. Rico Hoey
5. Alex Smalley
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Max Greyserman
8. Luke Clanton
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Emiliano Grillo

2025 Rocket Classic picks

Ben Griffin (+2200, FanDuel)

While Ben Griffin might not come out in the Top 10 in the model (he’s 17th, for what it’s worth), he checks more than enough boxes on his recent hot streak to have my full attention. That’s what five straight finishes of T14 or better will do for a player, a run that includes his win at Colonial, runner-up at Memorial and a T10 at the U.S. Open. 

When you look back at Griffin’s history at the Rocket Classic, he has two Top 35 finishes, which isn’t much to write home about. The critical factor with both of those finishes, though, is that he lost more than 0.3 strokes off the tee in both of those starts and gained just 0.65 strokes on approach over that span. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s gaining 0.53 strokes off the tee and 0.84 strokes on approach while also having a streaking putter. 

Griffin might not sustain this forever, but he does appear to have leveled up. In a weak field with the way he’s playing and the improvements that he’s made with his ball-striking, he’s more than capable of going low and earning his second solo PGA Tour victory ever in the span of just a couple of months.

Emiliano Grillo (+7000, FanDuel)

Of the four key metrics that we really highlighted with the model, Grillo topped the SG: Approach rankings, but that was the only one. However, it's worth noting that he just missed the comp course history in terms of SG: Total, ranking sixth in this field in that capacity. He's also sixth in the field in Proximity from 100-150 yards and ninth in Good Drive Percentage.

Grillo has reeled off four straight finishes of T24 or better in his last four starts, including finishing Top 20 at the U.S. Open. What stands out in that is the ball-striking, gaining 1.75 strokes with the ball-striking alone over the last 24 rounds. Admittedly, he's losing strokes putting over that span, which is always the worry with Grillo. And in an event that can turn into a putting contest, that obviously could be a point of concern.

At the same time, there might not be a better ball-striker in the field, at least in terms of form, than Grillo is coming in. Especially with the 70-1 price, that's enough to take a dice-roll on.

Rico Hoey (+9000, FanDuel)

Because of some recent dips in approach play, you might not be looking at Rico Hoey this week. But you definitely should be. For starters, he made his first start at DGC just last year and came out firing to finish T6, which is even more impressive when you consider that he lost strokes off the tee in that event. Considering that's arguably his greatest weapon, that can't be ignored when you start to look at the 2025 tournament.

The off the tee play is there right now and in droves, ranking 19th in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds and fifth in Good Drive Percentage as well. More importantly, his approach play has popped earlier in the season and he's eighth in SG: Putting on bent/poa over the last 36 rounds, which has resulted in coming in at fourth in Birdie or Better rate over his last 24 rounds.

Hoey has shown a propensity for being able to attack easy scoring conditions and Detroit Golf Club suits his game better than most, especially on the greens. He has far better than a 90-1 chance to win the Rocket Classic based on that, so I have to make sure he's on my card.

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