Report: Texas State a ‘heavy favorite’ to receive Pac-12 invitation

The rush is on for the Pac-12 Conference to issue an invitation to at least one football-playing school and reports indicate that Texas State is a heavy favorite to get that call.

Time is important because the reconfigured Pac-12, which will include San Diego State, needs to have an eighth football school in the fold by July 1 in order to receive certification for the College Football Playoff starting in 2026-27.

July 1 is also when the buyout for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 season will jump from $5 million to $10 million, according to a report by Pete Thamel and Kyle Bonagura of ESPN.

SDSU and the other seven confirmed members of the new Pac-12 have signed their grant of rights and membership agreements, with a media rights deal expected any day. 

It’s been rumored for months that Texas State is the leading candidate to join the Pac-12, and it was prominently discussed during a virtual meeting recently, according to ESPN.

San Diego State was up against a similar deadline in June 2023. It was so sure it was on its way to either the Pac-12 or Big 12 that it notified the Mountain West it intended to “resign” from the conference. But with no invitation forthcoming, and its exit fee about to double, it informed the MW it was not leaving. 

A month later, literally overnight, the Pac-12 fell apart. Oregon and Washington joined USC and UCLA in moving to the Big Ten, Cal and Stanford bolted for the ACC, and Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado joined the Big 12.

Last fall, SDSU and fellow MW schools Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State announced, along with Gonzaga, that they were joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State in reforming the Pac-12 effective July 1, 2026. Gonzaga doesn’t play football; thus, the need for at least one more football-playing school.

Why Texas State is important

Just as San Diego State will be the only Pac-12 member located in Southern California, inviting Texas State will give the new-look league a presence in the football-mad Lone Star State. 

Texas State had an enrollment of 40,678 for the 2024-25 academic year. It moved up to FBS in 2012 and plays in the Sun Belt Conference. 

Coach G.J. Kinne has guided the Bobcats to consecutive 8-5 seasons and appearances in the First Responder Bowl. 

In basketball, the Bobcats haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 1997 and finished 16-16 last season, including 9-9 in the Sun Belt.

San Diego State has never played Texas State in football, although it has played twice in the Frisco Bowl in the Dallas suburb of the same name and once in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth.

The Aztecs are 2-1 against the Bobcats in basketball. The Aztecs won a neutral-site game in 1989 and each school won on its home court in a two-game series in the 1996-97 and 1997-98 seasons. 

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