Notre Dame Gets Head-Scratching Playoff Projection from ESPN FPI

Notre Dame will enter the 2025 college football season primed to make a run at the national championship, a game it made it to a season ago before ultimately falling short in a loss to Ohio State. On paper you would think Notre Dame would have among the best odds in the country to not just make the College Football Playoff, but to make a run at winning the whole thing.

ESPN FPI released its preseason college football ratings on Tuesday and Notre Dame came in towards the top of the list. Marcus Freeman's Fighting Irish rank seventh nationally according to the FPI. That number might seem a bit low for Notre Dame fans but it's the other numbers that I find more confusing from the initial ratings.

Notre Dame's Projected Record for 2025:

FPI projects Notre Dame to go 9.3-2.7 on the year. Some simple rounding shows that it thinks Notre Dame is a three-loss team in 2025. Yes, Notre Dame starts with back-to-back tough games at Miami (FL) and against Texas A&M, but there isn't a team the Fighting Irish play that enter the year ranked ahead of them. Yes, Notre Dame will have a first-time starting quarterback but he (CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey) will have about as ideal of roster around him as one could ask for.

Notre Dame's Chances of Going 12-0 in 2025:

As great as Notre Dame's postseason run was a year ago, the formula doesn't seem to be sold on the Irish quite as much. The formula gives Notre Dame just a 7% chance of going undefeated in the regular season. That is actually tied for third-highest of all FBS teams, but if you were to play out Notre Dame's schedule 100 times I would guess it finds a way to escape without defeat in more than seven of those.

Then again, Northern Illinois did still happen last year so will the lessons learned from that brutal afternoon carry over to 2025?

Notre Dame's Playoff Chances in 2025:

FPI gives Notre Dame a 45.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff this coming year. Again, the schedule is kind enough to be very top-heavy for the Irish, but really, less than half the time this team would make the Playoff? Maybe the season comes and this plays out to be true but to think eight teams have a better shot of making the Playoff than Notre Dame at this point in time feels a bit absurd to me.

Notre Dame National Championship Chances in 2025:

Notre Dame is given the seventh-best chances of making the national championship game as it sits with a 7.3% chance according to the rating. However, its how far back from the pack the Irish are that surprises me most. Texas (37.7%) and Georgia (30.0%) are the favorites while Ohio State (21.3%) and Alabama (20.2%) are next. Penn State (14.4%) and Oregon (10.4%) round out the teams given better odds than Notre Dame to make it to the championship round.

Notre Dame is also given just a 2.7% chance to win the national championship this coming fall while Texas (24.1%) and Georgia (17.9%) are the favorites for that.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway:

Notre Dame returns a team with the overwhelming majority of talent returning after making a trip to the national championship. Offensive linemen that were key in that run transferred out because they were likely to lose starting jobs to better players. Wide receivers have been upgraded, and the running game should remain among the nation's best.

It's like by looking at these FPI numbers, that nothing that happened last year matters. And sure, that's true in the sense that just because Notre Dame showed up last year, doesn't guarantee it will again, but when you look at Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon all having new starting quarterbacks this year, it's difficult to see why there is such a preceived gap between that field and Notre Dame still.