Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 5

The Golden State Warriors’ backs are against the wall in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Golden State took Game 1 of this series in Minnesota, but it has now lost three games in a row with Steph Curry (hamstring) out of the lineup. Golden State had chances to win Games 3 and 4 at home, but it ultimately fell short in both contests.  

Curry, who has not played since Game 1, is listed as out on the team’s official injury report for Game 5. 

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are double-digit favorites in the latest odds in Game 5, as they’re looking to make the Western Conference Finals for the second time in as many seasons.

Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards have both been playing great basketball – especially over the last two games – for this Minnesota team that was great down the stretch of the regular season and stormed into the playoffs with the No. 4 net rating in the NBA.

Can the Wolves close out Golden State on Wednesday night?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 5. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +11.5 (-112)
• Timberwolves -11.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +440
• Timberwolves: -600

Total

• 203.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Warriors vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 14
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Timberwolves lead 3-1

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Steph Curry -- out

Timberwolves Injury Report 

• None to report

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Buddy Hield OVER 13.5 Points (-120)

Buddy Hield has been asked to carry a much bigger scoring load – even with Steph Curry in the lineup – over the last five games, picking up 14 or more points in four of them.

Hield has attempted at least 11 shots in each of those matchups while playing 29 or more minutes in all five games. He should be relied on in a big way again in Game 5 as Golden State searches for the offensive answers to remain alive in this series.

The former lottery pick has 24, 15, 14 and 13 points in his four games against Minnesota. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet 

• Julius Randle OVER 21.5 Points (-125)

Julius Randle has been awesome in the playoffs, averaging 23.3 points per game over nine games, and he’s coming off a 31-point showing in a huge Game 4 win over Golden State.

Randle is averaging 16.8 shots per game in the postseason, shooting an impressive 48.3 percent from the field while knocking down 34.7 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. He’s been everything the Timberwolves hoped for when they traded for him this past offseason.

Randle’s points prop has gone from 19.5 to 21.5 ahead of Game 5, but he’s scored 22 or more points in seven of his nine playoff games and three of the four games in this series.

Golden State’s lack of rim protection has been an issue when it comes to guarding Randle, and I don’t expect the three-time All-Star to slow down in Game 5 with a chance to close out the series. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

While it’s hard to see the Warriors coming back in this series unless Curry is able to return and play at his MVP level, I do think they’re a little undervalued in Game 5.

Golden State has kept two of its three losses and three of the four games in this series within double digits, including a seven-point loss at home in Game 4.

While the Warriors did lose badly in Minnesota in Game 2, they have actually been great on the road when set as an underdog this season, going 13-9 against the spread. Minnesota, on the other hand, is just 17-23 against the spread when favored at home.

Coming back from a 3-1 deficit is hard for any team, but I think Golden State at least gives Minnesota a scare in Game 5. Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Steve Kerr aren’t going to just pack things in during the playoffs, and Golden State hung tough in the first half in Game 4 before a dreadful third quarter. 

The Timberwolves have gone through some shooting slumps in this playoff run, and I think asking them to win by 12 or more in a closeout game is a little much – especially since Golden State is hoping to extend the series to give Curry a chance to return. 

Pick: Warriors +11.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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