Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 13

The Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back on Tuesday, May 13, after taking a 14-2 beating from the Detroit Tigers in the opener of their three-game set at Comerica Park.

Boston turns to Brayan Bello (2-0, 2.01 ERA), who’s been excellent in four starts since returning from a shoulder strain, to steady the ship. Detroit, meanwhile, will send out Tyler Holton (2-2, 3.12 ERA) for his first start of the season after 15 appearances out of the bullpen, as the Tigers aim to keep momentum rolling and sustain their lead in the AL Central.

Here’s my breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and a prediction for Tuesday night’s matchup.

Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
• Detroit Tigers +1.5  (-176)

Moneyline

• Boston Red Sox (-110)
• Detroit Tigers (-110)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-102)
• Under 8.5 (-118)

Red Sox vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Brayan Bello (2-0, 2.01 ERA)
• Tigers: Tyler Holton (2-2, 3.12 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 13
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports, NESN
• Red Sox Record: 22-21
• Twins Record: 27-15

Red Sox vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Brayan Bello Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-111)

This Tigers lineup has presented good eyes for the strike zone throughout the first month and a half of 2025; it has struck contact with 81.7% of pitches swung at in the zone, which ranks Detroit No. 8 overall in baseball.

Although Bello has performed reliably against several formidable opponents, he is striking out 5.24 hitters per nine innings, a career worst. In fact, according to Statcast, Bello ranks within the bottom 4% of pitchers in strikeout percentage with a 13.8% rate.

When Bello is working his way through hitters, a majority of his outs come from ground balls. Of the balls hitters have batted into play off Bello, 56.7% have been ground balls.

The fourth-year Red Sox right-hander has only eclipsed four strikeouts in his starts against the Minnesota Twins on May 2 in which he pitched for 6 ⅔ innings. 

I think we also need a bigger sample size of Bello’s command on the road this season. In the one away start he had against the Cleveland Guardians on April 27 — in which the Red Sox won 13-3, Bello only recorded four strikeouts in six innings and allowed all three runs. 

Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

The blame for Monday’s disaster can mostly be assigned to Tanner Houck, but the Tigers are still a solid power hitting club to be reckoned with. Detroit ranks within the top 10 across expected slug percentage and expected weighted on-base average per Statcast. 

It’s also the No. 6 overall team in weighted runs created plus, which evaluates runs generated by a team with external factors in mind such as ballparks and era. With a league average of 100, the Tigers have 116 through 42 games. 

Gleybor Torres, who went 3-for-3 with three RBIs on Monday, is having a revival season. Torres, along with Kerry Carpenter, is hitting .284 beneath another awakened player in Javier Baez. Baez’s 313/.347/.461 slash line is providing production from the bottom of Detroit’s lineup while Spencer Torkleson continues to ascend to the top of MLB’s power hitting hierarchy, ranking No. 38 overall in quality of contact with 10 home runs. 

While Bello gets his feet wet on the road, Boston’s fielding has been abysmal; it ranks dead last in errors with 37 (as of things couldn’t get worse from finishing 2024 second-to-last in that department).

Holton will likely turn the ball over to Keider Montero in quick fashion, but the left-hander has been wobbly as of late: Holton is running with a 4.70 ERA throughout his last six relief appearances. Montero doesn’t offer much of a reliable support foundation — he’s allowed a 5.45 xERA throughout his last four starts. 

Boston still has the bats to take advantage of this Detroit pitching strategy. Rafael Devers has catapulted back to his usual plate dominance, ranking No. 15 overall in contact quality while Wilyer Abreu continues to break out at No. 10. 

Per FanGraphs, Boston is still an above average team in wRC+, so I’m expecting the bats to come out swinging often and early Tuesday. After all, the Red Sox swing more on first pitches and overall than any other team.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-102 at BetMGM)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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