Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Rangers-Yankees, Tigers-Cardinals, Dodgers-D-Backs)

Tuesday’s MLB action features a full 15-game slate, and there are a few aces on the mound, including reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal.

Skubal, who has picked up right where he left off last season in the 2025 campaign, is favored to lead the Detroit Tigers to a win on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, and he’s one of my favorite pitchers to target.

There are a few other aces on the mound as well, as Spencer Strider returns from a month-long absence for the Atlanta Braves while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers in an NL West battle. 

Yamamoto is another pitcher that I’m looking to back on Tuesday, even though he struggled in his last outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Here’s a full breakdown of three plays to consider for the MLB action on Tuesday, May 20. 

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-180) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Texas Rangers-New York Yankees UNDER 9 (-112)

Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-180) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

After winning the Cy Young last season, Skubal has been great in the 2025 campaign, posting a 2.67 ERA while leading the Tigers to a 6-3 record in his nine starts.

Detroit is looking like a contender in the AL, as it has a +80 run differential (second-highest in the AL) and a 4.5-game cushion atop the division. Now, it gets a crack at a St. Louis Cardinals team that is playing well as of late, winning eight of its last 10 games to move into second in the NL Central.

Still, I love taking Skubal to lead the Tigers to a win. The lefty doesn’t allow many free passes, giving up just six total walks in 2025, and that’s helped him post an expected ERA in the 88th percentile in MLB.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are countering with Erick Fedde in this game, and despite a solid 3.44 ERA, he ranks in just the 19th percentile in expected ERA and 15th percentile in average exit velocity against. In fact, Fedde is outside the 30th percentile in several key metrics, including expected batting average against, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage and walk percentage.

As a result, the Cardinals are just 3-6 in his nine starts in 2025.

St. Louis is an elite team at home (16-6 this season), but the Tigers have the superior starter on the mound and slightly outrank the Cardinals in OPS (No. 5 to No. 7) and runs scored (No. 4 to No. 7) this season. 

I’ll trust Skubal to earn Detroit a win on Tuesday. 

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers are struggling right now, dropping four games in a row, but I still am going to trust Yamamoto at home against opener Ryne Nelson.

A former starter, Nelson has pitched mainly out of the bullpen this season (he’s made one start), posting a 5.13 ERA for the D-Backs. While he ranks in the 49th percentile in expected ERA this season, Nelson has given up a ton of hard contact, ranking in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity against.

That could be a problem against a Dodgers team that is first in MLB in OPS and second in runs scored in the 2025 season – even though L.A. has struggled to win as of late.

Yamamoto – despite allowing eight runs over his last two starts – has been one of the better pitchers in the NL this season. He’s posted a 2.12 ERA and allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his first nine starts. 

Arizona did knock the righty around for five runs in his last outing against it, but I am fading the D-Backs’ pitching staff more than anything in this game.

Not only has Nelson struggled in 2025, but Arizona ranks 27th in MLB in bullpen ERA (5.36) this season. So, using an opener means the D-Backs will need to lean even more on their ‘pen on Tuesday. In Nelson’s lone start this season, he lasted just 4.1 innings.

Bettors may be scared away by Yamamoto’s recent performances, especially against an Arizona offense that is third in MLB in OPS, but the Dodgers righty still ranks in the 86th percentile in expected ERA.

I’ll trust him to bounce back on Tuesday night. 

Texas Rangers-New York Yankees UNDER 9 (-112)

The New York Yankees have been one of the best offenses in baseball this season, ranking second in OPS, third in runs scored and second in home runs heading into Tuesday’s series opener with the Texas Rangers.

However, I’m eyeing the UNDER with this total all the way up at nine – even in a questionable pitching matchup.

So far this season, the Rangers have been the best UNDER team in Major League Baseball, going 32-15-1 to the UNDER in 48 games. Texas’ offense has really struggled this season, ranking 26th in batting average, OPS and runs scored.

Meanwhile, it has the fourth-best team ERA in the league. That’s a perfect recipe for a lot of low-scoring games.

Texas has lefty Patrick Corbin on the mound on Tuesday, and while he’s struggled in recent seasons, Corbin has been solid in 2025. He’s posted a 3.35 ERA, although he does rank in just the 37th percentile in expected ERA.

Still, the Rangers have combined for fewer than nine runs in four of his seven starts. The Yankees are starting Will Warren – their No. 5 starter – but he’s strung together three solid starts in May, posting a 3.18 ERA while striking out 24 batters in 17.0 innings of work.

Warren has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine outings.

Plus, both of these teams have solid bullpens. Texas has posted a 3.91 bullpen ERA while the Yankees are a top-10 unit in the league at 3.37. 

Given the Rangers’ struggles on offense, I think this total is a touch too high on Tuesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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