Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Dodgers-D-Backs, Phillies-Guardians, Nationals-Cardinals)

Sunday’s MLB action features a ton of great games, including an NL West battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in the late afternoon (EST). 

I’m eyeing a pick in that game with D-Backs ace Zac Gallen on the mound, but that’s just one of three games to consider for this loaded slate on Mother’s Day. 

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians cap the action on Sunday Night Baseball, and Zack Wheeler will aim to remain hot after posting a 3.35 ERA in his first eight starts of the 2025 campaign.

As always here at SI Betting, I’m here to share my favorite bets of the day to help you navigate a huge slate of action.

Here’s a full breakdown of the picks and predictions for May 11. 

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Dodgers-Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings UNDER 5.5 (-130)
• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-180) vs. Cleveland Guardians
• Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Dodgers-Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings UNDER 5.5 (-130)

After a slow start to the 2025 season, Gallen is starting to heat up on the mound for the D-Backs, allowing just four hits and two earned runs in 13.0 innings in May (two starts).

Now, the Dodgers are a tough matchup – they rank second in MLB in OPS – but I’m buying this resurgence from Gallen, especially with the first five innings total all the way up at 5.5. Gallen has gone from a 5.57 ERA in April to a 1.38 ERA in May.

On the Dodgers side, they are facing a tough offense as well – Arizona is fourth in MLB in OPS this season.

However, Tony Gonsolin has been solid in his first two outings back in the rotation, allowing five runs and 10 hits in 11 innings of work. He also has a 2.94 FIP, which is a sign that he’s pitched better than his 4.09 ERA suggests.

It’s never fun to fade great offenses, but I think this early total is a tick too high on Sunday. 

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-180) vs. Cleveland Guardians

The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and are aiming to close out their series with Cleveland with a win on Sunday.

Wheeler is on the mound for the Phils, and he’s been lights out in 2025, posting a 3.35 ERA while striking out 66 batters in 51.0 innings of work. The Phillies are 5-3 in his starts, and I’m buying them in this matchup against Luis Ortiz.

Ortiz allowed six runs (five earned) in his last start against Washington, pushing his ERA to 5.30 on the season. The Guardians are just 3-4 in his outings, and he’s allowed three or more runs on four occasions.

To make matters worse, Cleveland may have a better record (23-16) than it should at this point in the season since it has a minus-14 run differential. For comparison, the Phillies are plus-20 in their run differential and have the same record. 

I’ll bet on Philly to pull out a win in this series finale with a significant advantage on the mound. 

Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Washington Nationals are dead last in MLB in bullpen ERA, so there is no way I can trust them to win a game as a favorite knowing what is coming in the later innings.

However, in the first five innings, I love them on Sunday with ace MacKenzie Gore on the mound.

This season, Gore has a 3.33 ERA and 2.77 FIP, allowing three or fewer earned runs in seven of his eight starts. He was lights out in his first outing in May, striking out nine while allowing just one run in five innings.

The Nats take on the St. Louis Cardinals and righty Miles Mikolas, who hasn’t been as good in 2025. The veteran has a 4.76 ERA, although he did work two scoreless outings at the end of April.

The Cardinals have been a slightly better offensive team this season, but Gore is the superior starter in this matchup. Mikolas struggled in 2024, posting a 5.35 ERA, and he allowed the most hits in MLB in 2023. 

I think the Nationals will be able to get out to an early lead on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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