Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Nick Castellanos, Adley Rutschman, and Jorge Polanco)

Happy Saturday, my friends. We have a loaded slate of MLB action to watch and bet today, so let's see if we can cash in on a few home run bets. I have three players I'm targeting to go deep today, and if even one of them can pull it off, we'll walk away with a nice profit.

Let's dive into it.

Top Home Run Picks Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Nick Castellanos Home Run (+630)
• Adley Rutschman Home Run (+470)
• Jorge Polanco Home Run (+470)

Nick Castellanos Home Run

Tanner Bibee gets the start for the Cleveland Guardians tonight, which could lead to members of the Philadelphia Phillies hitting a few home runs. Bibee allowed the fourth-highest home run rate amongst all starting pitchers, giving up 2.1 home runs per nine innings pitched.

I'm going to target Nick Castellanos to go deep. He has four home runs on the season and sports a .438 slugging percentage, a slight improvement on last year's .431 number. Now that he's facing a starter who has given up plenty of home runs this season, let's see if Castellanos can hit his fifth.

Adley Rutschman Home Run

Betting on a player who's facing the Los Angeles Angels to hit a home run is going to be a solid bet for the foreseeable future. The Angels' bullpen allows 1.8 home runs per nine innings, the most in the Majors by 0.5 home runs, and on top of that, Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for them tonight, and he's allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings.

Tonight, they face the Baltimore Orioles, so I'm going to bet on Adley Rutschman to hit a dinger. He has four home runs on the season, but I expect to see some positive regression for his power sooner rather than later. Let's see if he can get some pop from his bat tonight.

Jorge Polanco Home Run

Now starting pitcher has allowed a higher rate of home runs this season than Bowden Francis of the Toronto Blue Jays, who has given up 2.8 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Blue Jays' bullpen also gives up 1.1 home runs per nine innings, which ranks 22nd in the Majors.

That means we should target a member of the Seattle Mariners to hit a home run. The player I'm going to target is Jorge Polanco, who already has nine home runs in 2025 and has a strong slugging percentage of .680. He has added some significant power to his bat this season, but the betting market has yet to adjust.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!