Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, May 22, as both teams look to gain traction in the tight NL Central race.

The Brewers will send Aaron Civale (0–1, 15.00 ERA) to the mound for his first start since March 30, when he exited after three innings against the Yankees due to a strained left hamstring. Civale has since completed a rehab assignment and is expected to rejoin the rotation.

Opposing him is rookie Pirates right-hander Mike Burrows, who will make his season debut after getting the call from Triple-A Indianapolis earlier this week. Burrows debuted in late 2024 and has pitched 3.1 innings this year, allowing two runs with two strikeouts. 

I’ll give my analysis on how these two pitchers could fare in this series opener.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Brewers -1.5 (+130)
• Pirates +1.5  (-156)

Moneyline

• Brewers (-120)
• Pirates (+102)

Total

• Over 9 (-110)
• Under 9 (-110)

Brewers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Brewers: Aaron Civale (0-1, 15.00 ERA)
• Pirates: Mike Burrows (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Brewers vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, FDSN Wisconsin 
• Brewers Record: 24-26
• Pirates Record: 17-33

Brewers vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Mike Burrows Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)

What do we know about Mike Burrows at the Major League level? In the 3 ⅓ innings Burrows was summoned for against the Yankees last September, he allowed a home run and struck out a pair of batters in a 9-4 victory. 

Beyond that, we need a bigger sample size from the rookie, whose first start of the season comes against a weak-hitting Brewers crew that is trending toward rock bottom posting a .229/.308/.349 slash line. 

Burrows has been a strikeout monster in Triple-A Indianapolis: The rightie was seating 11.41 hitters per nine innings over the course of 32 ⅓ innings. 

How about his velocity? Burrows was slinging a 94.5 mph average in his debut and limited the Yankees to an impressive 104 mph exit velocity. 

The Pirates are looking for a shot in the arm, and Burrows’ call-up has upside to give it to them at home against a Brewers team that looks to be a shell of its 2024 postseason self.

Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Beyond the unknowns of Burrows in this pitching matchup, Civale hasn’t pitched since opening week. Now returning from the hamstring injury, I’m not sure how to trust Civale this season — he’s never been a strong strikeout guy anyway and his one appearance against the Yankees was an utter disaster. 

Behind both starters are unstable bullpens that both rank within the bottom 11 teams, but Burrows is drawing a Brew Crew that has been so disappointing, they are projected with a dead-last expected slug percentage and expected weighted on-base average on contact. 

Remember, this is a league that the Rockies play in.

There’s slight positive regression to be had in their expected batting metrics although they also dwell in the league’s numbers dungeon.

Nothing is brewing in Milwaukee. Take the underdog value on a rookie with upside facing a frustrated offense at home. 

Pick: Pirates (+102 at FanDuel)

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