Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Luis Severino, Lance McCullers Jr.)

Who doesn’t love a little MLB prop bet to get the day started?

With a handful of afternoon starts on Thursday, May 22, bettors can dive into the action for Thursday’s games well before the sun goes down. 

When it comes to betting player props in Major League Baseball, I usually favor pitching markets since there is a little less game-to-game volatility. Plus, it’s a little different than handicapping a hitter in an individual pitching matchup through the course of a three or four-game series. 

On Thursday, I’m backing A’s starter Luis Severino in a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB. 

Elsewhere, there are two struggling right-handers that bettors may want to fade, including one player that could easily cash a plus-money prop later tonight.

Let’s take a look at these picks – and their latest odds – for Thursday, May 22.

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• German Marquez OVER 6.5 Hits Allowed (-130)
• Luis Severino OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
• Lance McCullers Jr.  OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115)

German Marquez OVER 6.5 Hits Allowed (-130)

The 2025 season has been a rough one for German Marquez, as the Colorado Rockies righty has a 8.78 ERA and has given up a shocking 57 hits in just 40 innings of work.

Now, Marquez has a tough matchup at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won six games in a row and feature one of the best offenses in baseball.

Here’s how Philly ranks in a few key categories in 2025:

• Hits: 4th
• Runs: 6th
• Batting Average: 2nd
• OPS: 5th
• wRC+: 7th

Marquez has made nine starts this season, allowing seven or more hits in four of them. He’s actually led the Rockies to wins in his last two outings, but he gave up seven hits in three innings in one of those matchups.

I can’t trust him to limit one of the best offenses in baseball on Thursday afternoon.

Luis Severino OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

This is a pretty simple prop play for Severino, as the Angels are 29th in MLB in strikeouts per game this season, averaging 9.79 per night.

Severino has been far from dominant when it comes to registering punchouts – he ranks in just the 19th percentile in strikeout percentage this season – but he still has four starts with six or more K’s.

So, getting him at plus money on Thursday to reach that number isn’t too bad. The Angels have the highest strikeout percentage in MLB (26.8 percent), and it’s worth noting that Severino has at least worked into the sixth inning in eight outings in 2025. 

That should give him a high enough floor to clear this prop on Thursday.  

Lance McCullers Jr. OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115)

It’s been a tough start to the 2025 season for Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr., as he’s thrown just eight innings across three starts while posting a 7.88 ERA.

McCullers only recorded one out in his second outing of the season and he has pitched four or fewer innings in all three of his appearances.

On Thursday, I’m fading him in his walks prop, as he’s allowed seven free passes through three starts, giving up at least three in two of them. 

Against a Seattle Mariners team that ranks second in baseball in walks drawn this season (191), McCullers is an easy fade at +115 on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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